obama and mccain were tied four years ago. obama has a better shot. we do not have national elections. we have state elections and that changes the polls. it depends on who is doing the polling. "the washington post" gave obama the lead among registered voters. polls measured enthusiasm. romney people have been much more enthusiastic. you now see enthusiasm among obama supporters. host: this is the headline from "usa today." why is ohio so important? guest: no republican has ever been elected without carrying ohio. every republican that lost ohio has lost the general election. host: how is it looking for each candidate in ohio? guest: one poll showed obama was winning in ohio by a substantial amount. it's like ability was higher in ohio. so far obama is doing very well. is "national journal." host: what do you make of that? guest: people are on the air early and you're spending a lot of money early. you can hold back your money. obama ran all those ads last month. that money is going into getting these people out to the polls. host: back to florida, a